The Great Tight End Debate: Dalton Schultz or Ferguson and Hendershot?
Let me start by saying; I don’t think the Dallas Cowboys will be able to afford what Schultz is offered on the free market. And I am not making an argument that we NEED to sign Dalton Schultz. But I have seen a lot of talk online about “letting Schultz walk” because “we have replacement TE’s in Ferguson and Hendershot”.
Those quotes aren’t meant to be read in a condescending way; that’s just literally what people have been saying. And it got me thinking, “are Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot ready to take over the TE position?” (at least one of them)...
Stats on Stats on Stats…
First, I need to look at what these two, Ferguson and Hendershot, have done for the Cowboys.
2022 Regular Season Stats (Targets / Receptions / Yards / AVG / TD / LNG)
Ferguson 22 / 19 / 174 / 9.2 / 2 / 30
Hendershot 16 / 11 / 103 / 9.4 / 2 / 29
Combined 38 / 30 / 277 / 9.2 / 4 / 30
And in the playoffs (playoffs?!), Ferguson had a lone catch from two targets, for a hefty 34 yards. It was nice, but then that was it.
Low sample size, low targets, but let’s extrapolate!
Dalton Schultz 2022 Stats (Targets / Receptions / Yards / AVG / TD / LNG)
89 / 57 / 577 / 10.1 / 5 / 30
What I really want to do is see how those 89 targets would compare if those passes were sent to Ferguson and Hendershot instead of Schultz, so I did a little estimating and here’s what I came up with:
Ferguson and Hendershot combined for a 79% catch rate! That’s pretty damn amazing. Schultz had a 64% catch rate - that’s a difference of 15%. That’s a yuuuuuuge.
If we take that catch rate, which I think is inflated but let’s keep this honest to the data available, we get an additional 70 catches.
If we use the combined average per reception of 9.2 for Ferguson and Hendershot, we have an additional 644 yards, for an estimated combined total of 921 yards -- 344 more yards than Schultz achieved! Wowza…
Now, I mentioned that the catch rate of 79% is not really sustainable, and here’s why:
Peyton Hendershot had one game with more than 3 targets (5), and caught 2 balls
Jake Ferguson had one game with more than 3 targets (6), and caught 4 balls
Combined on those two games - 11 targets, 6 receptions = 55% catch rate
The highest catch rate in the NFL for ALL receivers since 2021 (75 receptions or more)
79% (Rondale Moore)
79% for a Tight End (Hayden Hurst)
Why does this matter?
It’s easier to get open once or twice per game when you are the 5th or 6th target on the field. But things change when the ball is thrown your way much more often. Considering this, if I adjust for the “highest target games” catch rate for Ferguson and Hendershot, their combined catch rate is much more reasonable: 65%.
This would mean an additional 58 receptions at a 9.2 yard average, which would equate to 811 total yards -- still 234 yards MORE than Schultz alone (Schultz best season was 2021 with 808 yards, for context).
OK, there is an argument there.
I feel better about Ferguson and Hendershot after breaking down these stats, but that would mean they would move up to the 3rd / 4th receiver on the field, face harder competition on defense, and have increased pressure when their number is called rather than just get open and be there when Dak needs them. The combination of these factors makes me question if these stats are a little inflated, but they don’t lie, based on what we currently know.
One last thing to consider when it comes to stats… Playoffs! (Playoffs?!)
Dalton Schultz played 3 playoff games since 2021, averaging 11.1 yards per reception (9% increase from regular season) and a 73% catch percentage (14% increase from regular season). The dude comes to play in the post season. Food for thought…
Where Is The Money, Lebowski?
The second issue we hear is that Dalton Schultz isn’t worth the money. To be honest, almost every player in the NFL is playing over or under the value of their contract.
But how has Dalton Schultz compared to other top Tight Ends in the NFL since 2021?:
4th in receptions (135)
5th in targets (193)
5th in TDs (13)
6th first down receptions (74)
6th in yards (1385)
10th yards per game (43)
12th catch percentage (70%)
15th yards per target (7.2)
17th in average yards/rec (10.3)
His connection with Dak Prescott definitely stands out. He’s a top 10 Tight End, no question, and arguably just on the cusp of a top 5, at least statistically.
Dalton Schultz was the 10th highest paid player at his position in 2022. He would have a franchise tag of roughly $13M if the Cowboys decided to go that route in 2023. How does that compare to the top performing Tight Ends (since 2021)?
2022 Salary For Top Performing Tight Ends Since 2021:
Kelce $14.3M
Andrew $14M
Hockenson $5M
Higbee $7.25M
Kittle $15M
Goedert $14.25M
Pitts $8.3M
Freiermuth $1.5M
Engram $9M
Average $9.84M
And here is a list of the TOP PAID Tight Ends (not including top performers above):
Waller $17M
Njoku $13.7M
J Smith $12.5M
H Henry $12.5M
Gesicki $10.9M
Hill $10M
Average $12.8M
We are looking at a fair value of about $11.3M for Tight Ends who have similar stats to Dalton Schultz. What does that mean?
I think Schultz will be looking for between $10M - $15M a year. Maybe he would give a hometown discount. But money talks. Even if he goes for the bottom of that range, it’s too much for the Cowboys to spend -- at least until we see what the front office in Dallas can do to open up more cap space. At the time of writing this, we have a month and a half until the Free Agency starts on March 15th.
Here's my worry…
Yes, we have cap space issues. There’s always some Cap Magic that can be done, but truth is we don’t have a lot of options, and might be forced to let Schultz walk.
On the other hand, we are weak in the receiver department. If we remove Lamb from the equation, Schultz made up 23% of the remaining yards from the rest of the Dallas Cowboys receivers.
Drafting a WR can be hit or miss in the draft, but worth the risk. Drafting any player can be hit or miss, this is true, but we know what we have in Schultz. I like that certainty.
If we solely look at the information shared in this article, and I blame myself for writing it, I might have just convinced myself to let him walk.
TLDR, I don’t believe that I’ve seen enough from Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot to feel confident in what I laid out. I don’t think the Cowboys can pay Schultz what he is going to be offered in free agency.
I do think we are between a rock and a hard place.
